If you havent seen in the news lately, we have finally started thse handing-over process of the Al-Anbar providence of Iraq to the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces).  What does this mean to us and our ability to leave the country?  Here is what I think:

1.  Setting a for sure timetable would be a mistake.  Don't get me wrong,we need to get out, but if we set a date, things could go wrong, and then you have a huge mess, even bigger than what we had a few years ago there.  As you all know, you make a plan, and when you are unable to stick to it, people get upset.  Expectations cannot be set too high for the international stage, say we are unable to withdraw every troop by XX-XX-XX date...what will the UN say?  We could potentially put ourselves on the same level as Russia and their mess in Georgia right now, saying they are leaving, while they pump more troops in.

2.  While handing the Anbar region over is a huge step, troop levels will most likely stay  the same or close to it for quite a while.  The few media outlets that have reported this story might be saying we are leaving soon, but you have to understand, we are not leaving.  We are simply taking a proverbial "back seat" to the Iraqis.  What I mean is, they are heading up security, we are backing them up, instead of them backing us up.   Hopefully they have learned a thing or two from our men and women that have been diligently training them for this job for 4 years.

3.  We may be leaving Iraq in the next 18 months, well not all troops, but I would venture to say 90%.  Because of this drawdown, watch for a troop surge into Afghanistan.  A resurgance of the Taliban there will cause a rise in American presence there, mostly to head up counter-insergency operations, hand-in-hand with the Afghans.  The biggest problem we still face there is the drugs.  The opium exports from that country bring in somewhere around 60% of their annual income!  Cutting this supply off from them would possibly cause the countries fragile economy to fail, and we would be back at square one.  So we are in a catch 22.  We do the right thing and remove the dangerous opium exports, but destroy a country in the process?  What is the right thing to do?

4.  One final thought:  Iraq is improving, despite media reports to the contrary.  Dont get me wrong, every time i lose a brother or sister-in-arms in Iraq, it makes my heart ache, but the truth is, more people were murdered in the streets of Chicago over the summer than in 14 of the Iraqi providences combined, to include American forces killed!