At its core, Airbnb was a great idea. Take someone’s extra room or property, and let them make money off of it while providing travelers with a cheaper and more private stay than a hotel.

But if you’ve been in one recently, you’ll know that they’re often a logistical mess, littered with hidden fees, hidden cameras, and run by overzealous landlords trying to achieve their derived goal of “passive income.”

Now, substantial data suggests that Airbnb owners across the country are royally fucked, and it’s all their own fault.

The real estate YouTuber Nick Gerli posted an eye-opening thread, using data collected from AllTheRooms.

“The Airbnb collapse is real,” he wrote. “Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year.”

The thread goes on to show significant drops in revenue across many cities, with some places like Phoenix and Austin showing almost 50% declines in the last year. The reason? There are almost twice as many Airbnb / VRBO rentals available as there are homes for sale, with some more touristy areas sporting a 10 to 1 ratio.

“Miami should def be on that top 10 list,” the Airbnb owner @WayneTechSPFX commented. “My partner has to shut down a couple in Miami as well.”

But while this means trouble for rental property owners, many local residents couldn’t care less.

“Local population hates the owners and despises the renters,” @allegedlyjason commented from a small town. “Locals are cheering for a collapse.”

Nick’s data is worrying, but not every analyst has such a negative projection. Jamie Lane, the SVP of Analytics at AirDNA responded with his own data set, showing significantly less decline in the market.

“Is it down in 2023? YES. Is it down 40%? NO,” he tweeted.

No matter the figures, there is certainly an oversaturation of Airbnb properties, and owners are selling. As for the scale, we’ll just have to wait and see. Rental owners have made their beds, now they have to lie in them.